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đ„ How Elon Gets Unstuck and Avoiding The Dangers Of Escalating Commitment
Welcome to the Action Digest, where we bring you more action than a Hans Zimmer soundtrack.
Behold this weekâs upcoming hacks and insights:
⏠We learn the psychological bias that can turn our determination into our downfall.
đŠ We unbox a technique used by rocket scientists to get unstuck when things arenât working.
đŻ A dramatic 18th century naval battle teaches us the difference between flexibility and recklessness.
P.s., you can check out editions 1-23 here in case you missed them, including insights such as the mindset that helped an entrepreneur build seven different billion-dollar companies, how Steve Jobs cultivated great creative taste, and why success might be much closer than we thought possible.
Seriously, there are some gems youâll appreciate in these earlier editions ;-)
1. Did you hear that, General?
On Thursday July 17th 1941, it felt inevitable that the United States would be pulled into World War II.
At the time, the U.S. military was a logistical mess, spread across a spattering of different office buildings.
So when a Congressman signaled to General Brehon Somervell that the country would need a new office space for the war effort, the General sprang into action.
He vowed âto construct a building big enough to house the entire War Departmentâa nerve center for the enormous military force gathering to fight a global war.â
If Somervell got his way, it would be the largest building in the world.
Not even 24 hours had gone by before he chose the perfect location for his masterpiece: Arlington Farm. It was a large and beautiful spot next to Virginiaâs famous Arlington Cemetery.
The land was shaped like a pentagon and so it made sense for the building to have five sides. Somervell hired an architect that same day and had blueprints drawn up over the weekend ready for Monday.
Thatâs barely four days of planning for one of the nationâs most ambitious projects.
The plans were soon approved by congress and work on the Pentagon was scheduled to begin by September 1stâa little over a month away.
Then the outcry began.
Once people learned of the proposed location, protests erupted on all fronts.
âŠSomervellâs building would desecrate the most beautiful views of Washington DC.
âŠIt was disrespectful to fallen soldiers buried in Arlington Cemetery.
âŠThe surrounding roads and bridges were not equipped to handle tens of thousands of new workers.
And, as many pointed out, there was a depot less than a mile away that was a much better location.
Too late!
Somervell waved off the critics and pressed ahead with his plan.
But the backlash only intensified.
The critics were so vocal that President Roosevelt himself got roped into the debate.
The President listened carefully to both sides and then, to Somervellâs dismay, ordered him to abandon Arlington and move the Pentagon to the depot instead.
Except Somervell wouldnât listen.
After days of meetings, he still wouldnât back down from his Arlington plans, effectively arguing with the President of the United States.
Roosevelt invited the General to drive to the depot site with him and listened as Somervell continued to make a desperate pitch for Arlington.
Finally, Roosevelt said, âMy dear general, Iâm still commander-in-chief of the Army!â Shortly after, pointing to the depot site, Roosevelt reemphasized, âDid you hear that, general? Weâre going to locate the War Department building over there.â
That settled it.
Somervell moved construction to the depot site, where the Pentagon is located today.
So what in the world drove General Somervell to become so wedded to his first idea?
It turns out that his response is common.
Sometimes itâs called the âsunk cost fallacy,â other times itâs referred to as âescalating commitment,â but the key observation is that we can become increasingly attached to a course of action once weâve started pursuing it.
It could be a project, a person, or an idea, but he effect is so strong that it can push us to defy the most powerful person in the country, even when weâre clearly wrong!
The cure that Somervell desperately neededâand the antidote to escalating commitmentâis âcognitive flexibility.â
Cognitive flexibility is the ability to consider multiple different options and to change your mind in response to changing circumstances.
Somervell had multiple opportunities to show flexibility and abandon his terrible plan.
He could have simply considered more options before committing to the first one that came to mind.
He had multiple opportunities to hear what the critics were saying and change his course.
So what can we do to avoid following in the footsteps of Somervell?
Thatâs the theme of todayâs edition.
Read on to learn three strategies for keeping an open and flexible mind.
Based on the source: The Pentagon - A History
2. When thinking outside the box doesnât work, get yourself a new box.
In 2021, Elon Musk reportedly wanted to âstab his eye with a forkâ over the Starship rocket engine.
âOver the previous weeks,â Walter Isaacson, Elonâs biographer writes, âMusk had been cycling through periods of despair and fury about the Starshipâs Raptor engine. It had become complex, expensive, and difficult to manufacture.â
The engine needed to be 10 times cheaper in order to be viable but the companyâs efforts were failing. In response, Musk decided to simply abandon the Raptor and âdeclared that they were going to shift their attention to making a whole new engine.â
Isaacson continues: âThe point of leapfrogging to a new engine was to get everyone thinking boldly. âOur goal is the great adventure engine,â [Musk] said in a pep talk to the team. âDoes it have a chance of success above zero? If so, put it in! If we find that there are changes we made that are too adventurous, then we will back up.ââ
One month later, âjust as suddenly as he had forced his team to focus on a futurist 1337 engine, Musk turned their attention back to revising the current Raptor engine into a leaner and meaner Raptor 2. âIâm moving the SpaceX propulsion focus back to Raptor,â he announced in a 2 a.m. text message.â
So was the month-long pursuit of a new engine helpful? Or was it an impulsive waste of time that had to be walked back?
âAs usual with him,â Isaacson concludes, âit was a mix of both. It served a purpose of forcing new ideas, including getting rid of various shrouds and skirts, that would be incorporated into his goals for an improved Raptor.â
Within the span of a year, SpaceX was successfully churning out one Raptor engine per dayâthe engines that would power Starshipâs first successful mission earlier this year.
Sometimes thinking outside the box isnât enough.
Sometimes the answer lies in a completely new box.
Either the new box contains the answer youâre seeking, or you will return to the old box with the fresh perspective necessary to move forward. Flexibility means being willing to scrap what youâre doing and starting fresh. It also means being open to returning to an old draft with fresh ideas.
Be steadfast on your destination but flexible with your path.
3. The science of being wrong
Why didnât General Somervell just switch to the superior location once it was pointed out to him?
Why couldnât he just say he changed his mind?
Why was that so hard?
Perhaps itâs because changing our minds is an inherent admission that weâre wrong.
After all, if weâre right about something, why would we need to change our minds?
Professor Adam K. Fetterman studies the science of identity, understanding, and belief. Many of his studies have looked at what happens when we admit weâre wrong to others.
According to Fettermanâs research, one reason we often fail to admit weâre wrong is because weâre scared that weâll hurt our reputation. We ask ourselves: wonât people think less of us if we admit we made a bad call?
Somervell was certainly a proud man who valued his reputation.
And yet Fettermanâs research suggests that this is literally a backward mindset.
Scientists who refused to admit that they failed to replicate a study suffered a much greater hit to their reputation than when they were honest about it.
When participants admitted that they were wrong on Facebook, they made better impressions and had higher reputations than those who didnât fess up. Users were also more likely to keep interacting with people who admitted they were wrong.
It seems that admitting weâre wrong can actually improve our reputation.
But even when being wrong does hurt our reputation, the damage is much less than refusing to admit to it. Somervellâs stubbornness endangered his reputation with the President much more than what simply changing course would have done.
Donât let the fear of being wrong obstruct your ability to be flexible and change your mind. Changing course does far less damage to our reputation than rigid denial ever will.
4. Working with a bias towards action is the ultimate competitive advantage
When you study the worldâs most prolific creatives, athletes, businessfolk, etc, you see the same pattern over and over again.
Working with a bias towards action is the ultimate competitive advantage.
That means always knowing your next move.
And it means building a habit of turning your ideas and notes into action steps.
The Action Method journaling system makes it easy to do exactly that.
Each page includes a dedicated Action Zone that encourages you to stay action-oriented.
That means getting more done, seeing more results, and feeling more satisfaction.
You can pick up or replenish your supply here.
âGone are the days where I walk out of a meeting with long notes and no clear understanding what I need to do. These notebooks keep me on track.â
5. The difference between flexibility and recklessness isâŠ
In 1798, after weeks of sailing around the Mediterranean Sea, British Admiral Horatio Nelson finally found the French fleet that heâd been searching for.
The French had twelve warships docked in Egyptâs Aboukir Bay in a half moon formation.
But now what?
Anyone with a modicum of naval savvy could see that the French had the upper hand.
They had more ships, more firepower, and a wall of cannons stretching from one end of the bay to the other. The French would rain down fire upon any ship dumb enough to approach the wall. Plus, the darkness of night was falling and the bay was full of shoals that could destroy the British fleet.
If Horatio was crazy enough to attack, the French captain figured heâd have at least twelve hours to prepare.
So what Horatio did next was stunningâŠ
đThis insight, that reveals the leadership principle that made Horatio Nelson a national hero, is for premium subscribers (yep, this weekly digest is reader supported). For the price of one fancy coffee per month our research team will agonize over the lessons learned from world class creative leaders and teams who make ideas happen, and send their tightly summarized conclusions directly to your inbox on a weekly basis. What a proposition, huh?!
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Weâll leave you with thisâŠ
âFreedom and happiness are found in the flexibility and ease with which we move through change.â
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